Over 80% of forecasts for 2017 were for interest rates to rise. Most were recommending shorter maturities. Our work, based on historical data, suggested that 2017 would be a good year for bonds (and perhaps a great year). Our analysis ...

Tagged with: George W. Karpus Money Management

The 2016 election of Donald Trump awakened capitalism in the United States with hopes of less regulation and lower taxes for corporations. President Trump’s mandate that every new regulation must eliminate two regulations is a simple yet effective way to ...

Tagged with: George W. Karpus Money Management

How did a promise to pay backed by the full faith and credit work out for Puerto Rico, the City of Detroit, Greece, Venezuela or Argentina? Historically, when cities or countries cannot pay their bills, investors get refinanced at 40% ...

Tagged with: George W. Karpus Money Management

When the 10 year U.S. Treasury yields 2.3%, how can an investor achieve a 5% return for six years on a very safe investment? The answer is term preferreds issued by closed-end funds. Closed-end funds and open-end funds (mutual funds) ...

Tagged with: George W. Karpus Money Management

Having met with several knowledgeable and experienced people at other organizations, it appears to be the consensus that total returns for stocks and bonds over the next 10 years should be quite low by historical standards. Many are estimating total ...

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Many bond market “experts” are again calling for a poor year in the bond market for 2017. If history and data are any guide, these “experts” could yet again be wrong. At the end of 2015, experts were calling for ...

Tagged with: bonds George W. Karpus Money Management

Interest rates in the United States are quite high relative to other developed countries, as can be seen in the attached table. Only Greece and Portugal in Europe, and Columbia, Brazil and Mexico in the Americas have higher interest rates. ...

Tagged with: George W. Karpus Money Management

On a bi-annual basis, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve conducts a survey of economists’ expectations for various financial metrics, called the Livingston Survey. The Livingston Survey represents a broad cross section of economists from the government, banking, industry and academic institutions. ...

Tagged with: George W. Karpus Money Management

At the end of 2013, an overwhelming proportion of investment professionals were calling for poor bond market performance in 2014. If you speculated and voided your portfolio of long-term bonds in favor of equities, you would have missed the 10th ...

Tagged with: George W. Karpus Money Management

As can be seen in the attached table, long-term interest rates have risen for five or more consecutive calendar quarters only 10 times over the last 87 years. Expanding the period to six consecutive quarters of rising long-term rates, there ...

Tagged with: George W. Karpus Money Management

Getting 7 percent tax-free income from a municipal bond portfolio seems like something from the late 1980s, when interest rates were much higher. However, due to somewhat unusual circumstances, that 7 percent tax-free return is available today. Interest rates bottomed ...

Tagged with: George W. Karpus Money Management

For the last 35 years I have been bullish on bonds. Investors have generally received attractive total returns with minimum credit and volatility risk. However, with the federal funds rate continuing to hover near zero and the Federal Reserve creating ...

Tagged with: George W. Karpus Money Management